Militant Violence in Jammu and Kashmir Post-Abrogation of Article 370
September 2025, Volume 18, Issue 9
Prepared by
The Counterterrorism and Armed Groups Studies Unit
Introduction: Historical Context and Constitutional Shift
The abrogation of Article 370 of the Indian Constitution on August 5, 2019, marked a pivotal turning point in the constitutional and political history of Jammu and Kashmir. This article, which had formed the legal basis for the region’s special status since 1949, granted the region an exceptional degree of autonomy while preserving its distinctive constitutional identity. The decision came within a complex historical context, as the region had experienced intermittent tensions for decades, ranging from armed conflict to political protests.
This analytical report highlights the rapid developments in the security landscape from August 2019 to July 2025, emphasizing the radical shift in the nature of militant violence from traditional insurgency patterns to more complex hybrid forms. The report also traces the parallel evolution in Indian security strategy, from conventional deterrence to multidimensional proactive approaches.
The report employs a multi-level analytical methodology, combining quantitative analysis of security data with qualitative analysis of strategic shifts, while considering the geopolitical and regional dimensions of the conflict.
Chapter One: Structural Shift in the Militant Landscape (2019–2020)
The immediate period following the abrogation represented a critical phase in the evolution of the security situation. The central government imposed extraordinary security measures, including a comprehensive communications blackout lasting 145 days, the deployment of over 80,000 additional security personnel, and strict movement restrictions that paralyzed daily life. These measures, combined with the COVID-19 pandemic, almost froze traditional militant activity.
During this phase, official figures showed a notable 40% decline in the frequency of militant attacks compared to the previous year. However, this quantitative decrease concealed deep qualitative changes in the structure of militant activity. The intense security pressure dismantled many traditional militant organizational structures, paving the way for the emergence of new hybrid entities.
These new entities, led by groups such as the “Trans Resistance Front” (TRF) and the “People’s Anti-Fascist Front” (PAFF), exhibited unique organizational traits. They relied on horizontal, decentralized structures while maintaining covert vertical links with parent groups in Pakistan. They also developed a distinct political rhetoric, adopting superficially secular “liberation” slogans, avoiding the overtly religious discourse that characterized traditional groups.
Operationally, these groups relied on small, independent cells of no more than five members, utilizing encrypted communication techniques and digital recruitment methods. They also leveraged “Overground Worker” (OGW) networks to provide flexible logistical infrastructure, ranging from safe houses to facilitating financial transfers.
Chapter Two: Sectarian Escalation and Geographic Expansion (2021–2023)
The following three years marked a qualitative shift in militant strategies. The focus moved from random attacks to targeted assaults on minorities, particularly Hindus, Sikhs, and migrant workers. Data indicates 72 targeted sectarian attacks during this period, resulting in 46 Kashmiri Pandit and 38 migrant worker fatalities.
This phase saw notable tactical developments. In addition to conventional weapons, militants employed advanced tools such as helmet cameras to record attacks, encrypted communication apps, and social media for propaganda and recruitment. Ambush attacks also became more sophisticated, relying on precise field intelligence and advanced planning.
Geographically, operations expanded beyond the traditional concentration in the Kashmir Valley to Hindu-majority areas of Jammu, notably the districts of Poonch, Rajouri, and Udhampur. Militants exploited the complex forested terrain to establish temporary bases and weapon caches.
Of particular concern was the development of cross-border logistical capabilities. Analysis of attack patterns revealed advanced coordination between local cells and their operators in Pakistan. Seized weapons also indicated improvements in armaments, including the introduction of advanced light weapons and enhanced explosives.
Chapter Three: Severe Escalation and Security Response (2024–2025)
The most recent years of the study period witnessed peak escalation in both scale and complexity. The region experienced a series of unprecedented mass attacks, notably the Reasi attack in June 2024 targeting a bus of Hindu pilgrims, which killed nine people, and the Pulwama massacre in April 2025 claiming 26 tourist lives.
India confronted this escalating threat through a radical strategic shift. This was exemplified by “Operation Sindur” in May 2025, representing a major change in Indian security strategy. The operation was not merely a conventional reaction but included multi-pronged preemptive strikes on nine training camps and weapons depots on the Pakistani side of the Line of Control.
The operation employed advanced capabilities, including armed drones, long-range cruise missiles, and sophisticated satellite surveillance systems. Electronic warfare disrupted militant communications, complemented by an intensive psychological operations campaign.
This was followed by “Operation Mahadev” in July 2025, a model of focused intelligence operations. The operation lasted 70 days and relied on a complex network of intelligence sources, including drone surveillance, communications interception, and human intelligence, resulting in the elimination of key leaders responsible for the Pulwama attack.
Chapter Four: International Dimensions and Regional Implications
The cross-border nature of the conflict added increasingly significant geopolitical dimensions. Indian positions received growing international support. In the U.S., the State Department designated the “Trans Resistance Front” as a global terrorist organization in July 2025, imposing strict financial and trade sanctions.
At the UN level, the 1267 Sanctions Committee issued a report the same month linking militant attacks in Kashmir to financing and training networks in Pakistan. The UN Security Council held closed consultations addressing Pakistan’s role in harboring these group leaders.
Regionally, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization issued a strong statement in September 2025 condemning the Pulwama attack and calling for accountability. This unified regional stance represented an important precedent in addressing the issue.
However, these international developments were accompanied by escalating regional tensions, including sporadic military confrontations along the Line of Control and mutual accusations between India and Pakistan over ceasefire violations. International concern grew over the risk of uncontrolled escalation, particularly given both sides’ nuclear capabilities.
Chapter Five: Strategic Analysis and Future Challenges
Analysis of conflict developments reveals deep strategic shifts. Militant groups have transitioned from traditional hierarchical models to multi-node decentralized networks, with increasing reliance on digital technologies across all operational aspects.
On the security side, India has moved from reactive defense to a proactive deterrence model, integrating conventional military capabilities with unconventional warfare tools. Technology has played an unprecedented role in surveillance, intelligence, and direct confrontation operations.
These developments face significant challenges. Security-wise, the fluid nature of hybrid groups presents a major challenge, given their rapid adaptability and exploitation of legal and technical loopholes. The geographic spread of militant operations further strains security resources.
Politically, challenges include the need for a comprehensive framework that combines security measures with addressing the deep-rooted political causes of the conflict. Historical experience shows that purely security-driven solutions are limited in resolving such complex conflicts.
Chapter Six: Future Scenarios and Strategic Alternatives
Based on the analysis of current trends, several potential future scenarios can be envisaged:
Scenario One: Assumes continuation of current trends, with intermittent violence persisting, a growing role of technology, and increased reliance on cyberattacks alongside conventional militant operations. India maintains its current proactive strategy with gradual development of tools and techniques.
Scenario Two: Assumes greater escalation, potentially leading to wider security confrontations and more direct involvement of regional and international actors. This scenario carries the risk of uncontrolled escalation given the tense regional environment.
Scenario Three: Focuses on political pathways, indicating the possibility of negotiated solutions despite current complexities. This requires complex preconditions, including internal consensus in Kashmir and suitable regional conditions.
Conclusion: Towards a Comprehensive Understanding of Security Transformations
The evolution of militant violence in Kashmir provides a rich case for studying contemporary conflict transformations. Clearly, there is a paradigmatic shift from traditional conflict to hybrid forms combining armed violence and unconventional warfare, with complex interaction among local, regional, and international factors.
India faces a strategic challenge in balancing effective security measures with regional stability in a context marked by intertwined political, security, and social factors. Effective confrontation with hybrid groups requires multidimensional capabilities integrating hard power with soft tools. The regional dimension remains critical, as any lasting solution must consider broader regional dynamics.
The future of the region will depend on the ability of all stakeholders to develop comprehensive approaches addressing the root causes of the conflict, providing a clear vision for regional integration and sustainable development. Historical experience shows that security measures alone, while necessary, are insufficient to resolve conflicts of such depth and complexity.
References
- Official data from the Ministry of Home Affairs, India (2019–2025).
- United Nations reports on Kashmir (2020–2025).
- Relevant UN Security Council documents.
- Archives of local and international media.
- Interviews with security analysts and South Asia experts.
- Academic studies specializing in conflict analysis.
- Statistical data from specialized research centers.
This report reflects developments up to July 2025, noting that the security situation in the region remains dynamic and subject to further developments.
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