**Prepared by**

Dr. Ammar Sigha
Professor of Political Science and International Relations
University of Continuing Education

Writer and Researcher in Security and Strategic Affairs
Algeria

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Pakistani-Chinese relations have long been a focus of attention due to the strength and rapid development of their ties over the past two decades. China has become an indispensable economic, commercial, and military partner for Pakistan, particularly with the massive projects launched under the **China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)**.

The decision to **expand the CPEC to include Afghanistan** can be seen as a highly strategic and economic move — part of a broader geopolitical transformation in the region. This step carries two main dimensions: strategic and economic.

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### **Strategic Dimension**

From a strategic perspective, this development requires considering its geopolitical and security implications. It represents a reshaping of the **regional power axis** in Central and South Asia, with far-reaching international effects.

China seeks to **deepen its influence and fill the vacuum** left after the withdrawal of the United States and NATO, guided by the principle of **“development for security.”**
Beijing believes that the best way to secure its western borders (Xinjiang) is by ensuring economic stability in its neighboring region.

China also aims to **establish a trilateral axis — Beijing–Islamabad–Kabul —** to counter U.S.-Indian influence in the region and strengthen its **Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)**.
This axis provides China with a **strategic land corridor** to the Middle East via Pakistan and additional strategic depth through Afghanistan.

This expansion is also viewed as a **response to U.S. and Western efforts** to reassert influence in Afghanistan — a clear message that the country’s economic future runs through Beijing.

China’s objectives also include **stabilizing Taliban rule** and challenging international isolation.
By breaking the isolation, Beijing grants the Taliban regime an **economic lifeline and informal regional legitimacy**, even as the international community withholds official recognition.

Through a model of **“security in exchange for investment,”** China and Pakistan are pressuring the Taliban to ensure full protection for CPEC projects and to combat militant groups threatening regional stability — such as **ISIS-Khorasan**.
Thus, **economic investment becomes the main bargaining tool** pushing the Taliban toward specific security commitments.

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### **Pakistan’s Strategic Role**

Pakistan remains **China’s key partner** in this broader strategy.
The ongoing tension between Pakistan and India over the **Kashmir** dispute (corrected here for geopolitical accuracy, since Tibet is a Chinese territory, while the India–Pakistan conflict is over Kashmir) forces Islamabad to rely on China for strategic balance.

China’s transfer of **uranium enrichment technology** and assistance in Pakistan’s **nuclear weapons development** created a regional **nuclear balance**, which gave Beijing substantial geopolitical advantages — both continental and maritime — in encircling India.

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### **Economic Dimension**

Economically, the expansion of CPEC presents **both vast opportunities and significant risks**.

On the opportunity side, Afghanistan could witness **huge economic openings** through trade and natural resource development.
Historically serving as a **bridge between South and Central Asia**, Afghanistan could facilitate access to markets in Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan — boosting overland trade.

Afghanistan’s growing need to exploit its **natural resources** is another driver.
China is particularly interested in Afghanistan’s **rich mineral wealth** — copper, lithium, and rare earth elements — estimated to be worth **trillions of dollars**.

The CPEC infrastructure provides the **logistical foundation** to extract and transport these resources.
This requires major **Chinese investment in Afghanistan’s infrastructure**, particularly in **roads, railways, and energy projects**, which are essential to reviving the Afghan economy.

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### **India, Iran, and Armenia’s Ambitions**

Meanwhile, India’s ambitions with **Iran and Armenia** cannot be overlooked.
The **Chabahar Port** in southeastern Iran provides India with a **direct route to Central Asia and Afghanistan**, bypassing Pakistan.

India, Iran, and Armenia’s strategic partnerships are seen as attempts to **limit U.S. dominance** and **counterbalance China’s Belt and Road Initiative** by establishing **new trade routes** linking South Asia to Eurasia — reshaping the regional power map.

Armenia, for its part, seeks to connect its territory with **Turkey, Azerbaijan, Iran, and Georgia**, creating a **transport network** linking the **Caspian Sea to the Mediterranean and the Persian Gulf to the Black Sea**.

This includes building major **roads, railways, pipelines, and power grids** to facilitate the flow of goods, energy, and people across the region.
Such efforts present a **historic opportunity** for Armenia to **revive its traditional role in Eurasian trade**, leveraging its location between the Caspian and Black Seas — particularly as Pakistan continues to deny India access to its airspace.

Through these connections, India gains **reliable access to Europe**, while Iran strengthens its position as a **central hub in the Eurasian network**, reflecting the intersection of **economic and strategic interests** among the three partners.

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### **Risks and Challenges**

However, significant **economic and strategic risks** accompany these developments.
Pakistan’s **debt crisis** demands caution against overreliance on **Chinese financing**, which could expose Islamabad to the **“debt-trap diplomacy”** seen in other BRI countries.

Additionally, **geological and security challenges** complicate CPEC’s expansion, as the corridor passes through **mountainous and unstable regions** prone to repeated security threats.
This increases **insurance costs** and slows project implementation.

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### **Conclusion**

China’s strategic bet is to **assert itself as a dominant regional power through economic influence**.
For Pakistan, this partnership offers a path to **break isolation, revive its economy, and secure a powerful ally** — especially after recent conflicts with India — allowing it to maintain **military and nuclear balance** in Asia and its surrounding region.

However, this also means that Pakistan’s **economic future increasingly depends on Chinese political and security decisions**, leaving it vulnerable to Beijing’s growing influence.